John Stone, director of multifamily investments for Colliers Arnold in Clearwater, has been around commercial real estate for a long time. He doesn’t strike me as a person given to extremes of pessimism or enthusiasm about the business.

Professionals, like John Stone, understand their industries and are usually measured in their responses to whatever comes their way.

Yet, Stone was obviously animated during a recent telephone conversation we had about what he’s seen lately in multifamily housing. Specifically, buyers seem to be coming in from the cold - buyers with cash, ready to do deals.

When a lot of people with money come forward at the same time, you know something’s up, Stone said.

“In the last 60 days, I’ve seen more qualified buyers - who have proven they have cash to do the deal - here in my office physically scouring for deals. They believe now is the time. I’ve had groups from three different countries here with an entourage looking. When the money starts thinking we’re bouncing across the bottom, it’s a pretty good indicator that we are,” he said.

Stone said he has three deals either under contract or in contract negotiation. In addition, four properties have surfaced that are primary targets, with pricing in line with expectations, he said.

“The key element is when the people with the cash start to take real action - and they’re being received by those with the product - then the market has reached a newfound level,” he said.

More evidence of that newfound level comes in the form of rising occupancy, falling concessions and stabilizing rents, Stone said. Occupancy rose 0.8% in the first six months of 2009, the first increase in three years for the Tampa Bay market, he said. The number of properties reporting concessions dropped 44%, and rents declined 2.5% - a sign that landlords are using rent as an enticement rather than concessions.

In doing a rent survey for a Fort Myers deal, Stone found that occupancy in six properties around his subject property had risen from about 80% to about 91% in 12 months. Almost all the landlords had stopped giving concessions, he said, and even the subject property had seen occupancy climb to 90%.

“The property managers - all of them - have seen a resurgence of new tenants coming in from previously renting houses,” he said.

Stone said buyers are favoring physical properties to paper assets, and most of the activity he’s seeing is international, coming from Germany, the United Kingdom, Norway, the Netherlands and Canada. He said it’s likely that Latin American buyers are active, as well.

“Right now, the U.S. has been suffering its crisis for a very long time. They think - as it relates to multifamily - it’s reaching the point you can find deals that will look good three or four years from now.”

As for the change of heart among sellers and their lenders, book values of the properties are now starting to match market values more closely, Stone said.

“Many of these deals have been in trouble for 18 months. In some cases, they stopped making payments for that length of time,” he said. “They (the banks) still don’t like losing money, but now they’re able to resolve some of these problems.”

And more sellers are becoming unwilling to invest additional equity in a refinance when they’re unlikely to get it back in the market, Stone said.

“A lot of sellers have realized they don’t have any equity left,” he said.

The jump in sales seems to be limited to multifamily right now, Stone said, adding he expects multifamily to lead commercial real estate out of its doldrums, followed by retail, office and industrial. Multifamily deal velocity will be slow for at least another six months, he said, and it will be well into 2010 before the volume of sales approximates normal.

But Stone said he’s confident the buying activity he’s seeing can be generalized to other markets in the state.

“I’m absolutely sure this is not a Tampa Bay issue. These guys will go anywhere,” he said.