Aug 16th

Learn the Real Estate Lingo and Talk the Talk with Confidence

By Danny Welsh, CMO of HIS, Greatest Real Estate Giveaway Director

 

Every profession has its distinct language, from doctors to lawyers to rocket scientists, the use of which in thought and in speech separates the insiders from everyone else-- and professional real estate investors are no exception.


Anyone can buy or sell their own home without knowing what a writ of restitution is or how to calculate the Gross Rent Multiplier, but if you want to step into the real estate investing arena as a serious investor one of the first things you need to do is grasp a firm understanding of the insider language.

When you can comfortably use the lingo familiar to others in the business, they will listen that much more closely to your ideas and proposals because they know they are dealing with a seasoned insider. Plus, those that don't know will respect you that much more that you do.

 

And bottom line, you'll put yourself in more positions to get paid.

If my company were to provide a textbook copy of the real estate investing glossary terms and definitions in the free modules on our website it would amount to well over 250 pages and growing. For some people, that'd be an overwhelming undertaking, to sit and read end-to-end, regardless of the fantastic benefits. But that wouldn't be the best way to learn in our opinion, as retention in "cramming" is little.

That's why we've broken the undertaking of learning to speak, and most importantly to think, like a real estate insider down to a manageable task you can complete over time-- or get the information you need immediately at your fingertips in one convenient place.

I advise that new investors take 15 minutes 1-2 times a week to learn a couple dozen terms and definitions and you'll be taking a pivotal step to mastery of the real estate investing game-- a step that those who are destined to remain on the sidelines watching never have the discipline to take.

Our top students "bookmark" the module links on their computer's internet browser and return to it at least once a week each week at a specific recurring time (i.e. a planned consistent 'time block'), to study for 15 minutes or so as time allows, using a calendar on their phone or computer to remind them until it becomes a habit.

 

I can’t stress how important it is to have the right lingo down. One can tell the difference from a newbie and someone who is more seasoned. My observation has been that there is a different respect and willingness of a contact to tune in when they perceive that you know what you are talking about.

 

Part of branding, especially when you are the 'brand', is how you present yourself. Within 40 seconds, how you look and the energy, pitch, tone, and rate of speech at which you speak, impacts the perception one forms about you to the greatest degree. However, what you say is still very relevant to success. First impressions are exceptionally hard to shift.

 

Dr. Robert Cialdini calls it the "halo effect". This is why I enjoy that many of our investors now first have their impression of me or our company from content marketing which is designed to portray our company and me for instance in the best light-- that of a credible authority and trusted advisor. Much better than if I had met someone initially sitting at home in my boxer shorts, and said "hey bud, got a hundred grand? Let's invest it!"  

 

I believe so much in this activity as a great catalyst for new investors, that our office has been given strict instructions to pass along for free the 4 module interactive online glossary we created for in-house training purposes to anyone who visits one of our websites and contacts us asking for the investor glossary.

Should you want it, just ask for it. Create a weekly reminder in your calendar to spend 15 minutes studying this glossary.  Take something so daunting as learning all the terms in a very large glossary and turn it into a very doable activity in bite sizes over time. 

I say all that to say this. Your mind is an amazing tool. It will serve you as you stretch it.

Learn the lingo of real estate.

It will pay off when you can “talk the talk” with confidence and multiply the effectiveness of your conversations in your real estate business with buyers, sellers, lenders, investors and tenants.

 

Jul 8th

Why Invest in Florida Now?

By Christy
You've all heard the news... Florida market dropping like a stone ....  unemployment is up, jobs are down.  Real estate prices are falling, falling, falling.  Loans are hard to get, the stock market is on its way down.  What's a reasonably intelligent investor to do?  

Well, I like to start at the top and take a page from Warren Buffet.  After all, if you're going to model success, he's a pretty good guy to follow.  And one thing that Mr. Buffet says is that you should get greedy when other people are fearful and be fearful when other people are greedy.  Following this advice would have saved a lot of people who sunk money into the real estate market at its top.  Guess where Warren Buffet is investing right now...  That's it -- real estate!  

Right now, we believe that the Orlando market has reached its bottom.  Prices are showing upward pressure and investors are moving back in.  That's why we've formed a fund and are purchasing properties directly from banks in Orlando.  

Here's why we picked Orlando:
1.  55,000,000 tourists visit every year.  It's one of the world's major attractions. 
2.  The city of Orlando is filled with beautiful parks, recreation facilities and has a world class international airport.
3.  The Mayor and city council of Orlando are working hard to attract new businesses and are using federal funds to improve Orlando's infrastructure.
4.   Disney is starting a new billion dollar development.  They're pretty smart -- and we like to follow smart money.
5.  Orlando businesses are hiring again.
6.  Orlando is attracting a young population.  Their influx of 20-somethings will provide an excellent base of renters for our properties.

There are 6 reasons that we are investing in Orlando.  We provide a turn key solution for investors.  The properties we purchase are in gorgeous communities.  We fix them up, rent them out and sell them to our investors at below-market prices with excellent property management in place.  If you'd like to learn more about investing with us, please contact me at 303-386-6732. 

Christy Mellott
303-386-6732
mmmchallenge.com
www.realdealcolorado.com 
Nov 16th

Big Brother Watching, New Bad Legislation Coming our way

By Luis Roque
It Is Important That You Read This Even If You Are Not in These States
When it comes to laws like these, it's "monkey see, money do", resulting in the domino effect. Your state can be next, so pay attention. Visit you state's website and review pending bills. Form a local political action committee. Be involved in the political process. If you are in one of these states, call, fax and email your representatives. Email all your friends and business associates. Picket in from of the state buildings. Contact your local news people. If you sit silent, you have no right to complain!

Texas - Senate Bill 629 - Passed
This bill is an amendment to an earlier law passed in 2001 that regulated installment land contracts. The current law calls these "executory contracts" and requires certain disclosures, most of which are not big deal. However, the penalties for non-compliance are substantial and bear no relationship to the supposed harm the consumers would bear if the disclosures are not followed. It's basically a windfall for buyers who find a good lawyer to hammer a technicality that most investors are not aware of. SB 629 takes it up a notch classifying lease/options as "executory contracts", the same as land contracts. This is deadly for investors who want to keep the tax benefits ownership when selling on lease/option and taking advantage of capital gains rates. If Texas calls a lease/option an executory contract, it makes it a sale, thus having a negative tax impact on the seller who may want to defer his gains through a 1031 exchange when the tenant exercises his option to purchase.

And, we're just getting started...

The bill further disallows an investor from selling a property by lease/option OR land contract if the seller has an underlying loan on the property without that lender's written permission. Since few, if any, investors have free and clear properties, this would effective eliminate the process of buying a property, financing it, then reselling on a lease/option or land contract. This is bad because it hurts not just investors but anyone who has a house that they want to move. Builders often sell properties on a "rent-to-own" basis, and now will be prohibited from doing so if there is underlying financing on the property. What if you do a fix-and-flip, but are unable to resell the property for cash? Maybe the lease/option would be the solution so you can cover your mortgage payments while still getting a sale? It won't be possible in Texas if this bill passes.

And, it gets Worse!

SB 629 states that you cannot sell a property under an executory contract unless you have title to the property. That means you cannot do a sandwich lease/option in Texas - Period. The bill also has a bunch of disclosures and regulations on lease/options, none of which are objectionable.

Read the bill here:Senate Bill 629

North Carolina - House Bill 725 (still pending)
House Bill 725 is a push from the North Carolina Attorney General's office, which has been on the rampage against investors for some time. The AG's office claims to have "hundreds of complaints" from people who were hurt by investors who bought properties "subject to" existing mortgage loans, then defaulted. I find it very hard to believe that more than a few complaints were ever filed. From the way the bill is written it's clear they just don't understand how these transactions work.

This bill is targeted against the investor who buys a property subject to an existing loan, the resells the property by lease/option or land contract to a consumer. The bill requires a number of disclosures to all parties involved, some of which are fine and some of which are absurd and irrelevant. The proposed bill requires the seller to get express written permission from his lender before transferring a property subject to an existing deed of trust, which will never likely happen. And, even if it were possible, the time frame it takes for a seller to get his lender's permission while he is in foreclosure is wholly impractical. This will hurt the seller who is in foreclosure and seeking to simply "dump" his property for whatever he can get. If the investor can cure the seller's back payments and/or negotiate a short sale with the lender, everyone walks away happy. If a seller has no options, he is going to walk away from the property and the bank will have another REO. Everyone loses.

Now, admittedly, some dumb or unscrupulous investors have taken deeds from sellers, promised to pay, then defaulted, leaving the seller with the short end of the stick. The right thing to do is require disclosures so that the seller enters into the deal knowing the risk. Adjustable rate mortgages are very dangerous, too, which is why R.E.S.P.A. requires disclosures. The government didn't go off the deed end and outlaw ARM loans. Curiously, the bill exempts real estate agents from the law, which means a licensed agent could theoretically buy a property subject to an existing deed of trust without lender permission and without the same disclosures as a non-licensed investor would be required to give. The suspicious side of me thinks that the real estate agents are also behind this bill, trying to corner the market on investing or requiring an agent's assistance on these deals so they can profit.

And, the most laughable portion of the bill addressed people like me, requiring all educational seminars to include a copy of the new law in our materials. I suppose the drafters of this bill failed to examine the first amendment, which prohibits the government from restricting the content of free speech.

Read the bill here: House Bill 725

Maryland - House Bill 1288 (Passed)
House Bill 1288 is aimed at foreclosure investors dealing with sellers in foreclosure.

The bill targets two types of activities, "Foreclosure Consulting" and "Foreclosure Purchasing". A "consultant" is someone who apparently charges a fee to give advice to the homeowner and/or help him to negotiate with his lender or get a new loan. A consultant must disclose his services in writing and offer a right to cancel that agreement at any time. The consultant cannot buy the property from the homeowner, nor can one of his "associates" (not clearly defined). The foreclosure purchaser must also give certain disclosures in writing, including a ten-day right to cancel the contract. This means you cannot get a deed without giving a homeowner a 10 day "cooling off" period. This is not necessarily a bad idea, but it may prevent a homeowner who is fighting a deadline from doing a last-minute sale. No matter how long the foreclosure process, most homeowners wait until the last week before taking action.

The final part of the bill deals with a foreclosure "reconveyance", that is, a deal wherein the homeowner stays in the property under a lease, reserving the option to repurchase the property from the buyer at a later date. I don't particularly like these kinds of transactions, because they generally fail and they can sometimes be reclassified by the courts as disguised loans. On the other hand, many homeowners facing foreclosure have no other means to save their property, and in a free market should have the opportunity to engage in a transaction which allows them to try to save their home based on intelligent, informed decisions. This law would require the investor to give the homeowner 82% of the proceeds of the sale if the homeowner cannot repurchase the property, which makes it unfeasible for any investor to even bother trying to help the homeowner. In short, such a law would hurt more homeowners than it purports to protect. The 22 pages of requirements are very technical, so you should review it in detail with a local attorney. House Bill 1288 - Full Text in PDF Format

Colorado Senate Bill 06-071 (Still in Committee)
The Colorado bill is being pushed by the Attorney General and the Colorado Public Trustee's Association (Colorado's foreclosure process involves a public official, the county Public Trustee). This bill is a watered-down version of the Maryland Bill, which will also regulate "foreclosure consultants" and "equity purchasers". Through lobbying efforts, we have gotten the ear of the AG's office to get some good amendments to the bill that should result in a sensible piece of legislation. Like the Maryland bill, the Colorado bill prohibits a "consultant" or one of his associates from buying a property in foreclosure from the homeowner. The bill, as amended, better defines a "consultant" so as not to confuse such a person with a "purchaser" who will be buying the property, not offering the homeowner "advice for money". The bill is still in discussion and we are hoping to further refine some of the "reconveyance" provisions to make it fair for investors and protect homeowners from predators. The bill also adds criminal penalties for violation of the law, which is certainly scary for the average investor who does not understand how to comply. If you are in Colorado expect a seminar this Summer to explain all of the nuances!

Illinois Senate Bill 2349 (Still in Committee)
The Illinois law is similar to the Maryland Bill, but takes it up a notch. The proposed bill would also apply to properties "in distress", that is, homeowners who are 90 days late, but no foreclosure has been filed. This is extremely dangerous because there's no public filing until the foreclosure action has started, thus no way to know who is in default! Also, the Illinois bill would require an investor to pay off the seller's liens before doing a foreclosure reconveyance, that is, you can't take a property subject-to the existing loan and sell it back on a lease/option. However, you are not prohibited from taking subject-to and selling it to a third party.

The Illinois bill also contains the "82% of proceeds to the seller" provision, which effectively kills any intelligent investor from getting involved. Why would you want to buy a property and risk the homeowner defaulting, filing bankruptcy and hauling you into court over 18% gross profit? On the other hand, I can see the argument why it is patently unfair for a homeowner to lose a property with 50% equity for non-payment of one month's rent, but these cases are rare. In any event, a court always has the equitable power to call a contract "unconscionable" where it sees fit. Using an arbitrary number like 82% may not be feasible when the local real estate economy is in the toilet and banks are selling properties at 60% of value or less. In short, the government should leave the free market open for people to make deals that they wish to make, punish those who take unfair advantage, and require mandatory disclosures so people can make informed choices.

Conclusion
I have mixed feelings about these new bills... on the one hand, they are rash responses the side effects of a strong real estate market, discouraging investors from getting involved in deals and resulting in more properties going to the bank. On the other hand, some of these bills provide "safe harbors" for investors that follow the letter of the law. Since there are really few laws that relate to "creative" real estate investing, providing detailed rules make litigation by a disgruntled seller or tenant/buyer more difficult. It's hard to say, "you didn't disclose X, Y & Z" when in fact the law only requires "A, B & C". If investors in these states make some noise by contacting their state representatives right away, a modified version of these bills may get passed, making everyone happy. And, if something comes up in your own state, get involved in the process before a bad piece of legislation puts you out of business.

I highly recommend doing the following:

1. Get involved early in the process. Find out who is pushing the bill in your state and why. Contact these groups and offer to assist in the legislative process by discussing practical effects of these laws and other alternatives.

2. Get other groups involved in the process. Community leaders, such as real estate investor associations, mortgage brokers associations, title companies, boards of realtors, etc. Remember, the banks do not want these foreclosure properties in their inventory, so they need investors bailing out properties before they go to sale.

3. Speak to your local representatives. State legislators are generally accessible, to call, fax, and even visit their offices. Let them know you are a voter in their district that has concerns.

4. Speak to the Press. The media is pushing stories about how people in foreclosure are losing their homes, but there's two sides to every story. Talk with local newspaper, radio and television personalities. Write letters to the editor of your paper (click here for a good example).

5. Hire a lobbyist. The best way to get access to legislators is the good old fashioned way - money. Lobbyists (also known as "Public Relations Experts") have connections with different law makers and can get you an audience to hear your issues. They can find out who is for and against particular issues, and who can either amend or "kill" a particular bill being presented. On the national level, the National Association of Responsible Home Rebuilders and Investors (www.NARHRI.org) has been active in about 8 states.

The most important thing is to get involved early in the process.

By: Bill Bronchick.

Luis D Roque
www.hisrealestatenetwork.com
www.greatestrealestategiveaway.com

Nov 9th

illegal Quick Flips ( FBI )

By Luis Roque

Headline Archives

OPERATION QUICK FLIP

  • Operation Quick Flip is designed to show that federal law enforcement recognizes the mortgage fraud threat. The Federal Bureau of Investigation Criminal Investigative Division (CID), the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Office of the Inspector General (OIG), the United States Postal Inspection Service (USPS), the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), and the Department of Justice (DOJ) have participated in this case round-up to provide information to the public regarding the federal government's efforts to combat mortgage fraud. The federal agencies involved are targeting mortgage fraud groups in order to disrupt and dismantle them permanently.
  • Mortgage Fraud is one of the fastest growing white collar crimes in the United States. Mortgage Fraud is defined as a material misstatement, misrepresentation, or omission relied upon by an underwriter or lender to fund, purchase, or insure a loan.
  • There are two types of Mortgage Fraud: fraud for property and fraud for profit. Fraud for Property, also known as Fraud for Housing, usually involves the borrower as the perpetrator on a single loan. The borrower makes a few misrepresentations, usually regarding income, personal debt, and property value or there are down payment problems. The borrower wants the property and intends to repay the loan. Sometimes industry professionals are involved in coaching the borrower so that they qualify. Fraud for Property/Housing accounts for 20 percent of all fraud.
  • Fraud for Profit involves industry professionals. There are generally multiple loan transactions with several financial institutions involved. These frauds include numerous gross misrepresentations including: income is overstated, assets are overstated, collateral is overstated, the length of employment is overstated or fictitious employment is reported, and employment is backstopped by co-conspirators. The borrower's debts are not fully disclosed, nor is the borrower's credit history, which is often altered. Often, the borrower assumes the identity of another person (straw buyer). The borrower states he intends to use the property for occupancy when he/she intends to use the property for rental income, or is purchasing the property for another party (nominee). Appraisals almost always list the property as owner-occupied. Down payments do not exist or are borrowed and disguised with a fraudulent gift letter. The property value is inflated (faulty appraisal) to increase the sales value to make up for no down payment and to generate cash proceeds in fraud for profit.
  • Typical fraud schemes:
  •  
    • Backward Applications: After identifying a property to purchase, a borrower customizes his/her income to meet the loan criteria.
  •  
    • Air Loans: These are non-existent property loans where there is usually no collateral. An example would be where a broker invents borrowers and properties, establishes accounts for payments and maintains custodial accounts for escrows. They may set up an office with a bank of telephones, each one used as the employer, appraiser, credit agency, etc. for verification purposes.
  •  
    • Silent Seconds: The buyer of a property borrows the down payment from the seller through the issuance of a non-disclosed second mortgage. The primary lender believes the borrower has invested his own money in the down payment, when in fact, it is borrowed. The second mortgage may not be recorded to further conceal its status from the primary lender.
  •  
    • Nominee Loans: The identity of the borrower is concealed through the use of a nominee who allows the borrower to use the nominee's name and credit history to apply for a loan.
  •  
    • Property Flips: Property is purchased, falsely appraised at a higher value, and then quickly sold. What makes property flipping illegal is that the appraisal information is fraudulent. The schemes typically involve fraudulent appraisals, doctored loan documents, and inflation of the buyer’s income.
  •  
    • Foreclosure schemes: The subject identifies homeowners who are at risk of defaulting on loans or whose houses are already in foreclosure. Subjects mislead the homeowners into believing that they can save their homes in exchange for a transfer of the deed and up-front fees. The subject profits from these schemes by re-mortgaging the property or pocketing the fees paid by the homeowner.
  •  
    • Equity Skimming: An investor may use a straw buyer, false income documents, and false credit reports to obtain a mortgage loan in the straw buyer's name. Subsequent to closing, the straw buyer signs the property over to the investor in a quit claim deed which relinquishes all rights to the property and provides no guaranty to title. The investor does not make any mortgage payments and rents the property until foreclosure takes place several months later.
  • Federal law enforcement is working with state and local law enforcement, regulators, and the financial institution industry to combat the problem.

    • OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) has passed a regulation requiring Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to report suspicious mortgage fraud activity on a Mortgage Incident Notice (MFIN).

    • FBI, OFHEO, and FinCEN (Financial Crimes Enforcement Network) are working to establish a reporting device similar to the banking industry's Suspicious Activity Report. This is in progress, but will likely take some time as regulations and possibly legislation will have to be passed.

    • The FBI, HUD-OIG, USPS, and IRS conduct criminal investigations into Mortgage Fraud Activity with a goal of disrupting and dismantling mortgage fraud rings. We strongly support joint investigations to effectively utilize all of our limited resources while strengthening investigations by tapping into everyone's expertise.

  • From July 5, 2005, until October 27, 2005, the FBI, HUD-OIG, USPS, IRS, in coordination with the DOJ, indicted 156 mortgage fraud subjects. A total of 81 arrests were made. A total of 89 convictions were obtained, and 60 subjects were sentenced during this time frame.

    • The combined loss to the industry by the above-subjects is $606,830,604.

  • In fiscal year 2005, the following stats are available:

    • 21,994 SARs were filed (up from 17,127 in Fiscal Year 2004).

    • 721 pending FBI Mortgage Fraud cases (up from 534 in Fiscal Year 2004).

    • 1,020 pending HUD-OIG Mortgage Fraud cases (up from 920 in Fiscal Year 2004).

    • 206 FBI indictments/informations (down from 241 in Fiscal Year 2004).

    • 170 FBI convictions (consistent with 172 convictions in Fiscal Year 2004)

    • $1,014,000,000 (FBI) reported loss (up from $429,000,000 in Fiscal Year 2004).

  • Top ten hot spots for Mortgage Fraud activity in 2003 (per capita): California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.
  • Top ten hot spots for Mortgage Fraud activity in 2004 (per capita): California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Illinois, Maryland, Georgia, and Florida
Nov 9th

Basics of the Real Estate Contract

By Luis Roque

Basics of the Real Estate Contract

by Attorney William Bronchick


The real estate contract is the most often used, yet little understood tool in the real estate business. Whether you are a rank beginner or seasoned expert, there is no excuse for not knowing and understanding the real estate contract.

Real estate contracts are based on common law contract principles, so it is important that you understand the nuts and bolts of contract law. Offer, Counteroffer and Acceptance.In most states there are standardized contracts used by real estate agents and attorneys. The contract is generally drafted in the form of an offer. The offer is usually signed by the buyer (the offeror). The contract is not binding until the seller accepts, creating a "meeting of the minds" (called "mutual assent").

An acceptance is made if the offeree (the seller, in this case) agrees to the exact terms of the offer. If the seller replies, "I'll accept your offer if you agree to close fifteen days sooner," there is no binding contract, but rather a counteroffer. The basic building block of a contract is that there is mutual agreement.

If the offer is not accepted in the time frame and manner set forth by the buyer (offeror), then there is no contract. For example, if the contract specifies that acceptance must be made by facsimile, an acceptance by telephone call or mail will not suffice.

Unilateral Contract vs. Bilateral Contract.

A real estate sales contract is a "bilateral" (two-way) agreement. The seller agrees to sell, and the buyer agrees to buy. Compare this with an option; an option is a unilateral (one-way) agreement in that the seller is obligated to sell, but the buyer is not obligated to buy - it is his option to do so. A bilateral agreement with a "liquidated damages" provision yields the same result if the buyer fails to close escrow; the seller keeps the buyer's earnest money and the deal is over.

Basic Legal Requirements of a Real Estate Contract.

There are some basic requirements that must be present to make a real estate contract valid:

1. Mutual Assent. As stated earlier, there must mutual agreement or "meeting of the minds."

2. In Writing. With few exceptions, a contract for purchase and sale of real estate must be in writing to be enforceable. Thus, if a buyer makes an offer in writing and the seller accepts orally, then backs out, the buyer is out of luck.

3. Identify the Parties. The contract must identify the parties. Although not legally required, a contract commonly sets forth full names and middle initials (it helps the title company in preparation of the title commitment). If one of the parties is a corporation, it should so state (e.g., "North American Land Acquisitions, Inc., a Nevada Corporation").

4. Identify the Property. The contract must identify the property. Although not required, the legal description should be set forth. A vague description such as "my lakefront home" may not be specific enough to create a binding contract.

5. Purchase Price. The contract must state the purchase price of the property or a reasonably ascertainable figure (e.g., "appraised value as determined by ABC Appraisal Group").

6. Consideration. A contract must have consideration to be enforceable. Consideration is the benefit, interest or value that induces a promise; it is the glue that binds a contract. The amount of the consideration is not important, but rather whether there is consideration at all. It is common for a contract to state that "ten dollars and other good and valuable consideration has been paid and received."

7. Signatures. A contract must signed to be enforceable. The party signing must be of legal age and sound mind. A notary's signature or witness is not required. A facsimile signature is usually acceptable, so long as the contract states that facsimile signatures are valid.

Nov 5th

understanding inflation and Deflation

By Luis Roque

Nouriel Roubini Doesn't Understand Inflation and Deflation

After the financial collapse of 2008, Nouriel Roubini emerged as one of the world's most well known and respected economists. Roubini this week called Jim Rogers' prediction that gold will reach $2,000 in the next decade "utter nonsense" and said that there is no inflation to drive gold prices that high. He also said that oil's rise from $30 to $80 per barrel is "very difficult to justify" when demand for oil is down to year 2005 levels. Although Roubini was accurate at predicting the housing collapse in 2005 and how it would sink the economy, many other people including the co-founders of NIA were also right about the housing bubble in 2005. While we consider Roubini to be more intelligent than most other economists out there today, he is dead wrong when it comes to inflation and deflation.

We believe Roubini needs to wake up and realize that inflation is already here today. Gold rising to a record high on Wednesday of $1,098 per ounce and oil rising to $80 per barrel is a symptom of inflation. The Federal Reserve printing dollars at an unprecedented rate by definition is inflation. Just because we haven't seen a rise as of yet in the government's phony CPI index, doesn't mean we don't have inflation today.

Roubini expects to see heavy deflationary forces through 2012 from industrial overcapacity, falling labor costs and a still damaged financial system; but it is our belief that with the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates on Wednesday at 0%, a massive overdose of excess liquidity will override these deflationary forces and ultimately lead to hyperinflation. Inflation is the easiest thing for any central bank to create and the Federal Reserve is clearly pulling out all the stops to see that we have inflation. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve doesn't have an exit strategy. By the time inflation becomes the top story on the news each night, it will be impossible to control.

In our opinion, the world will be shocked at how quickly gold rises to $2,000. Jim Rogers' prediction of $2,000 per ounce gold in the next decade is extremely conservative, it could happen next year. Jim Rogers based his prediction on the fact we have been discussing for a long time, gold's high of $850 in 1980 adjusted for inflation is $2,300 per ounce in today's dollars. Compared to 1980 when we were the world's largest creditor nation, today we are the world's largest debtor nation with a national debt that is about to hit $12 trillion. With the U.S. government itself estimating a $9 trillion budget deficit over the next decade, we will eventually get to a point where 50% of taxes collected by the treasury will be needed to pay the interest on our national debt. Combined with unfunded liabilities for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, we believe hyperinflation is inevitable.

We agree with Roubini that U.S. stocks have run too far too fast and another dip in nominal terms is more likely to happen than not. What we know for sure is, U.S. stock markets are going to fall substantially priced in gold. History tells us that gold is the only real safe haven and after the collapse of a financial bubble, the Dow Jones/Gold ratio always falls to a level between 1 and 2.

In 2008, the world rushed out of stocks and into U.S. dollars as a safe haven. We said U.S. dollars were the riskiest asset of all and that gold was the only real safe haven. Since then, the world has been rushing to get rid of their dollars by buying stocks, commodities and precious metals. With unemployment numbers being released on Friday, it is possible that investors will soon realize the U.S. economy is not truly recovering and stocks are rallying only due to inflation. This time around, as investors cash out of stocks, more people will stay clear of the U.S. dollar and rush to buy gold instead. We predict a major short-term decline in the Dow Jones/Gold ratio from its current level of 9, back down to the low of 7 we saw earlier this year. Over the next 12 months,
the Dow Jones/Gold ratio is likely to make new lows for the current bear market.

Please spread the word about NIA and have your friends subscribe for free at http://inflation.us
Nov 5th

Another round of Asset Inflation

By Luis Roque
The Fed's Latest, Greatest Round
of Asset Inflation

by Mike Larson


There goes oil, surging past $80-a-barrel. That's up 150 percent from the December low, in case you're keeping score.

Gasoline? Wholesale prices are up more than 40 cents a gallon in just under a month ...

Heating oil? Grab an extra blanket! It just jumped to the highest price in almost a year ...

Corn? It's up almost a buck a bushel since mid-September ...

Wheat? Rising. Soybeans? Yep. Sugar? Near a 26-year high. And I hope you're not planning on eating too much chocolate this Halloween. Replacing it will cost a lot more considering cocoa futures just soared to the highest level in almost three decades.




But for everyone else, it just means higher prices at the pump ... a dramatic escalation in heating bills ... pricier bread ... more expensive cereal ... and so on.

And you know what? Federal Reserve policymakers probably couldn't be happier! They want prices to surge. In fact, they are deliberately pursuing reckless monetary policies and a strategy of dollar debasement in order to ENSURE we get yet another round of asset inflation!

The Definition of Insanity:
Doing the Same Thing Again and Again ...
And Expecting a Different Result.

I always liked that quip about the definition of insanity. And as far as I'm concerned, it definitely applies to the Fed.

You'd think these men and women would get it.

You'd think that after helping inflate two gigantic asset bubbles in stocks and housing ... then watching them blow up in their faces ... they might change strategies.


You'd think they'd realize the problems inherent in flooding the economy with cheap and easy money. Or in eagerly slashing rates by huge margins at the first sign of trouble ... but only reluctantly — and belatedly — raising them.

But no ... it seems they're determined to inflate yet another asset bubble, this time in just about everything!

The tidal wave of liquidity flooding out of the Fed is floating every boat out there. Commodities are the most obvious example. But the same principle applies to equities ... junk bonds ... emerging markets ... and many foreign currencies. The carry trade is driving the action in anything and everything.

Foreigners "Fed" Up With the Money Flood —
But They Can't Stem the Tide Alone ...

So much funny money is flooding the world that more responsible foreign central bankers and policymakers are boiling over with anger. They're warning the Fed to knock it off, and starting to take steps to stem the gains in their currencies against the greenback.



* The Bank of Canada warned on Tuesday that "heightened volatility and persistent strength in the Canadian dollar are working to slow growth ... the current strength in the dollar is expected, over time, to more than fully offset the favorable developments since July." That was a clear attempt to talk down the Canadian dollar, affectionately known as the "loonie."

* European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet warned again about "excessive volatility" in exchange rates, while a French economic advisor said the current euro-dollar rate is a "disaster for the European economy." More verbal intervention, this time targeted at the euro currency.

* In Brazil, the carry trade (borrow cheap dollars here, plow 'em into higher-yielding Brazilian assets) is so out of control, the government just slapped a tax on foreign investors. A 2 percent levy will apply to foreign purchases of Brazilian fixed-income securities and stocks, effective immediately.

* Minutes of the latest Reserve Bank of Australia meeting showed that officials were very concerned about the side effects of recklessly easy money. Policymakers warned that a "very expansionary setting of policy was no longer necessary, and possibly imprudent." The RBA surprised the world several days ago by raising Australia's benchmark rate 25 basis points to 3.25 percent.



Heck, even the financial newsmagazine Barron's published a cover story this past weekend urging Bernanke to raise the funds rate. Barron's said the rate should increase from its current 0-to-0.25 percent range to 2 percent.

There's just one problem: All of these guys are ultimately powerless against the Fed! Sure, they might win the occasional one- or two-day battle in the markets. But until the Fed joins the fight, they're going to lose the war. And as I've told you repeatedly, the Fed shows no sign of having the motive, means, or political willpower to do what's right.

So what's going to happen?

The Fed is going to keep monetary policy "too easy" in order to inflate asset prices. And the carry trade will live on. If that makes our lives miserable by driving up the cost of living ... the Fed just doesn't care.

They're apparently more worried about helping Goldman Sachs generate the biggest quarterly profit in the firm's history.

Until next time,

Mike





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Nov 4th

Multifamily buyers on the Hunt.

By Luis Roque

Multifamily buyers on the hunt

John Stone, director of multifamily investments for Colliers Arnold in Clearwater, has been around commercial real estate for a long time. He doesn’t strike me as a person given to extremes of pessimism or enthusiasm about the business.

Professionals, like John Stone, understand their industries and are usually measured in their responses to whatever comes their way.

Yet, Stone was obviously animated during a recent telephone conversation we had about what he’s seen lately in multifamily housing. Specifically, buyers seem to be coming in from the cold - buyers with cash, ready to do deals.

When a lot of people with money come forward at the same time, you know something’s up, Stone said.

“In the last 60 days, I’ve seen more qualified buyers - who have proven they have cash to do the deal - here in my office physically scouring for deals. They believe now is the time. I’ve had groups from three different countries here with an entourage looking. When the money starts thinking we’re bouncing across the bottom, it’s a pretty good indicator that we are,” he said.

Stone said he has three deals either under contract or in contract negotiation. In addition, four properties have surfaced that are primary targets, with pricing in line with expectations, he said.

“The key element is when the people with the cash start to take real action - and they’re being received by those with the product - then the market has reached a newfound level,” he said.

More evidence of that newfound level comes in the form of rising occupancy, falling concessions and stabilizing rents, Stone said. Occupancy rose 0.8% in the first six months of 2009, the first increase in three years for the Tampa Bay market, he said. The number of properties reporting concessions dropped 44%, and rents declined 2.5% - a sign that landlords are using rent as an enticement rather than concessions.

In doing a rent survey for a Fort Myers deal, Stone found that occupancy in six properties around his subject property had risen from about 80% to about 91% in 12 months. Almost all the landlords had stopped giving concessions, he said, and even the subject property had seen occupancy climb to 90%.

“The property managers - all of them - have seen a resurgence of new tenants coming in from previously renting houses,” he said.

Stone said buyers are favoring physical properties to paper assets, and most of the activity he’s seeing is international, coming from Germany, the United Kingdom, Norway, the Netherlands and Canada. He said it’s likely that Latin American buyers are active, as well.

“Right now, the U.S. has been suffering its crisis for a very long time. They think - as it relates to multifamily - it’s reaching the point you can find deals that will look good three or four years from now.”

As for the change of heart among sellers and their lenders, book values of the properties are now starting to match market values more closely, Stone said.

“Many of these deals have been in trouble for 18 months. In some cases, they stopped making payments for that length of time,” he said. “They (the banks) still don’t like losing money, but now they’re able to resolve some of these problems.”

And more sellers are becoming unwilling to invest additional equity in a refinance when they’re unlikely to get it back in the market, Stone said.

“A lot of sellers have realized they don’t have any equity left,” he said.

The jump in sales seems to be limited to multifamily right now, Stone said, adding he expects multifamily to lead commercial real estate out of its doldrums, followed by retail, office and industrial. Multifamily deal velocity will be slow for at least another six months, he said, and it will be well into 2010 before the volume of sales approximates normal.

But Stone said he’s confident the buying activity he’s seeing can be generalized to other markets in the state.

“I’m absolutely sure this is not a Tampa Bay issue. These guys will go anywhere,” he said.

Nov 3rd

US Inflation next in Food and Agriculturee

By Luis Roque

U.S. Inflation to Appear Next in Food and Agriculture

While most mainstream economists such as Nouriel Roubini are warning of deflationary threats to the U.S. economy, it is our belief that massive price inflation has already begun. The Federal Reserve's policy of massive monetary inflation in 2009 has caused the Dow Jones to bounce over 50% from its low, oil to rise 100% from its low, and gold to surge to a new all time nominal high. One NIA co-founder just saw his health insurance premium rise 16% over a year ago; and the average tuition for a four-year public college increased this year by 6.5%.

Prices are rising all around us, yet agricultural commodities have for the most part been left behind and remain at historically depressed levels. Fundamentals for agriculture are improving on a daily basis. A worldwide shortage of farmers combined with food inventories falling to record lows is setting up the perfect storm for an explosion in agriculture prices. There is a huge opportunity today to invest at the ground-floor into what will likely be one of the biggest boom industries of the next several decades.

Wheat is currently down 60% from its all time nominal high set in 2008 and 80% from its inflation adjusted high set in the 1970s. Corn is currently down 50% from its all time nominal high set in 2008 and 75% from its inflation adjusted high set in the 1970s. Wheat and corn have only bounced 13% and 26% from their 52-week lows this year respectively. While sugar has faired much better and is now at a 28-year nominal high, sugar is still down 70% from its inflation adjusted high set in the 1970s.

With crude oil back above $80 per barrel, we will soon see a renewed interest in alternative energy. This will create increased demand for wheat, corn and sugar which are used to make ethanol and other biofuels. A massive rise in agriculture prices is just around the corner.

We receive countless emails on a weekly basis asking about if Real Estate is now a good investment and if rents will likely climb during hyperinflation. While rents will increase nominally during hyperinflation, they will plummet compared to agriculture. No longer will Americans eat more than most other countries, yet spend less of their income on food. When Americans are forced to pay more for food, it will take away from what they can spend on rent.

The average American consumer today spends approximately 30% of their income on housing and only 10% of their income on food. We expect these numbers to reverse in the years ahead as the U.S. dollar loses its purchasing power. In Germany during hyperinflation, rents fell from 30% to less than 1% of the average households' expenditures while food rose from 30% to a high of over 91%.

The U.S. is currently the world's largest exporter of wheat and corn and the fifth largest exporter of sugar. When American consumers purchase food at their local supermarket, they are competing against consumers from all around the globe. As the Federal Reserve prints trillions of dollars out of thin air and causes our currency to lose its purchasing power, Americans won't be able to afford to eat as much and farmers will be forced to increase their exports to countries with stronger currencies.

When it comes to an apartment in the U.S. that a landlord is trying to rent to a tenant, there is no global market to drive rent prices up. The rents landlords receive depend on the strength of the local U.S. economy. With unemployment continuing to surge and a huge glut of homes on the market, it is only a matter of time before real rent prices decline and become a smaller monthly expense than food.

While Americans will eat less in the years ahead, Chinese citizens will be able to afford to eat more. Despite China's rapidly growing economy, there are major food shortages in China. Chinese agriculture companies have a chance of becoming the market's biggest gainers of the next decade. Our last China agriculture stock suggestion gained over 83% after our profile in a little more than six months. We will be announcing our new China agriculture stock suggestion on Tuesday.
  
Please spread the word about NIA and have your friends subscribe for free at http://inflation.us
Jun 4th

Find the Best Real Estate Deals by Word of Mouth?

By Danny Welsh, CMO of HIS, Greatest Real Estate Giveaway Director

Why can we often find the best deals by word of mouth?

Many times, we can learn about these great deals before anyone else— simply by being the ear on the receiving end of someone who wants to do us a favor (or return one). By being the person among someone’s group of friends, family, acquaintances, or co-workers who is known to them as the “go-to-guy” to solve problems in real estate— and by making it worth that person’s while to give you the information you need. (That’s very important!)

This person could be ANYONE we meet, even if we just met them TODAY.

It’s true, the best deals are never listed. Not on the MLS. Not in a FSBO magazine. Not on a website somewhere.

No, the best deals are often never listed at all. In fact, a mentor of mine made famous the phrase, “if it’s on a list, the deal doesn’t exist”. No, a true deal is something few people are going to know about. You want to be one of those people!

Networking can yield some surprisingly fantastic results as connections are made with other movers and shakers and people in the know and believe me when I say that relationships can be forged in some unlikely place— and with some unlikely people.

Even your garbage man can be a great person to network with, when you’re looking for great potential real estate deals.

Think about it a second and you’ll realize why this makes so much sense. Do you see it?